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Science

Climate Modelling and Feedback

Overview

Students explore the science of climate modelling, discovering how positive and negative feedback loops determine the sensitivity of the climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Learning Objective
Students understand how climate models work, what feedback loops are, and how they amplify or dampen climate change signals.

Resources needed

  • None

Lesson stages

0 / 7 done
  1. 1 Recap: the enhanced greenhouse effect is causing global warming. But the actual amount of warming depends on feedback loops.
  2. 2 Introduce positive feedback: a change that amplifies the original change. Example — warming melts Arctic ice; ice reflects sunlight; with less ice, the ocean absorbs more heat; more warming follows.
  3. 3 Introduce the ice-albedo feedback in detail: ice has high albedo (reflectivity). Ocean has low albedo. As ice melts, more solar energy is absorbed, accelerating warming.
  4. 4 Introduce the permafrost feedback: warming thaws permafrost, releasing trapped methane (a powerful greenhouse gas), causing more warming.
  5. 5 Introduce a negative feedback: increased evaporation leads to more cloud formation. Some clouds reflect sunlight back to space (cooling effect). But other clouds trap heat (warming effect). This is complex.
  6. 6 Explain how climate models work: divide the atmosphere and ocean into a grid of cells, apply physical laws to each cell, run forward in time. Larger and finer grids give more accurate results but require more computing power.
  7. 7 Discuss model uncertainty: what can models predict confidently, and where does uncertainty remain?

Tap a step to mark it as done.

Variations

  • Calculate the ice-albedo feedback effect using simple albedo values.
  • Compare climate model predictions from 1990 with what actually happened — assess their accuracy.
  • Discuss tipping points: thresholds beyond which feedback loops cause irreversible change.
More information

Teach: feedback, positive feedback, negative feedback, albedo, permafrost, tipping point, model, uncertainty. The distinction between positive feedback (amplifying) and negative feedback (dampening) is critical — and counterintuitive since positive sounds good.

Focus on two or three feedback loops rather than attempting to cover all of them. Depth of understanding one feedback loop is more valuable than surface coverage of six.

Can students explain the ice-albedo feedback loop as a complete causal chain? Can they distinguish between positive and negative feedback and give one example of each in the climate system?

No resources needed. Draw simple feedback diagrams in soil showing the causal chain of each loop.

Students often think positive feedback means good feedback. In the climate context, positive feedback amplifies warming — it is the mechanism by which small initial changes can have large eventual effects. The word positive means self-reinforcing, not beneficial.

Climate feedback loops explain why climate change is not proportional to CO2 increase — the system amplifies initial changes. Understanding feedbacks is essential for interpreting climate science and evaluating proposed solutions.

Activity details
Secondary Challenging 25 minutes no prep Whole Class, Small Group Indoor & Outdoor
Topics
Climate Modelling Feedback Loops Earth Systems